Originally Posted by Bwana:
Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.
Originally Posted by Dartgod:
People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.
We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.
Thanks!
Click here for the original OP:
Spoiler!
Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.
California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.
“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”
The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.
The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”
Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.
The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.
The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.
A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.
Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.
“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”
It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.
“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”
On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.
“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”
According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.
More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.
But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.
“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”
CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.
Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.
“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”
Originally Posted by TLO:
So are we throwing the IMHE out with the bath water or holding onto it?
You can find a variety of news articles about it if you search for "IMHE model" that discuss it. What it comes down to is that a model is just that - a model. Just like hurricane (or other weather) models, it's really best to use a bunch of them in combination and see where they agree. There's been very limited effort by the feds to either fund other model development or make it public (tough to say which), so we're kind of missing that "other models" part aside from the state level, which is a much more scattered approach.
So in short, there's nothing wrong with IMHE, but it'd sure be nice to have a few others to use to compare. [Reply]
Originally Posted by BigRedChief:
Some discussion as to why young and otherwise healthy patients are dying so fast from coranavirus. This might be an explanation....
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Mysterious Heart Damage, Not Just Lung Troubles, Befalling COVID-19 Patients
In addition to lung damage, many COVID-19 patients are also developing heart problems — and dying of cardiac arrest.
As more data comes in from China and Italy, as well as Washington state and New York, more cardiac experts are coming to believe the COVID-19 virus can infect the heart muscle. An initial study found cardiac damage in as many as 1 in 5 patients, leading to heart failure and death even among those who show no signs of respiratory distress.
That could change the way doctors and hospitals need to think about patients, particularly in the early stages of illness. It also could open up a second front in the battle against the COVID-19 pandemic, with a need for new precautions in people with preexisting heart problems, new demands for equipment and, ultimately, new treatment plans for damaged hearts among those who survive.
“It’s extremely important to answer the question: Is their heart being affected by the virus and can we do something about it?” said Dr. Ulrich Jorde, the head of heart failure, cardiac transplantation and mechanical circulatory support for the Montefiore Health System in New York City. “This may save many lives in the end.”
Virus Or Illness?
The question of whether the emerging heart problems are caused by the virus itself or are a byproduct of the body’s reaction to it has become one of the critical unknowns facing doctors as they race to understand the novel illness. Determining how the virus affects the heart is difficult, in part, because severe illness alone can influence heart health.
“Someone who’s dying from a bad pneumonia will ultimately die because the heart stops,” said Dr. Robert Bonow, a professor of cardiology at the Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine and editor of the medical journal JAMA Cardiology. “You can’t get enough oxygen into your system and things go haywire.”
But Bonow and many other cardiac specialists believe a COVID-19 infection could lead to damage to the heart in four or five ways. Some patients, they say, might be affected by more than one of those pathways at once.
For the golf nuts I highly recommend “Golf is not a game of perfect “ Bob Rotella and “Swing the clubhead” by Ernest Jones, sorry for thread high jack carry on. [Reply]
Originally Posted by BigRedChief:
Some discussion as to why young and otherwise healthy patients are dying so fast from coranavirus. This might be an explanation....
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Read this and no mention of "young and otherwise healthy patients are dying so fast". If=s there a link missing? [Reply]
Originally Posted by TLO:
So are we throwing the IMHE out with the bath water or holding onto it?
It's a piece of shit that's ALWAYS been a piece of shit and now their credibility depends on convincing you that your eyes are lying to you.
You do with it what you will, but you're better served spending your time learning about the models that establish that the world is flat. They're just as accurate. [Reply]
Once the peak passes and we have a consistent timeframe of lowered death rates, have everyone >40 go back to work. They can go out. If you are >40 and have a pre-existing condition, you work from home until the vaccine is created. It’s your responsibility to stay home and away from people.
Everyone over 40 works from home or keeps their distance....at home until vaccine.
Once the peak passes and we have a consistent timeframe of lowered death rates, have everyone >40 go back to work. They can go out. If you are >40 and have a pre-existing condition, you work from home until the vaccine is created. It’s your responsibility to stay home and away from people.
Everyone over 40 works from home or keeps their distance....at home until vaccine.
Once the peak passes and we have a consistent timeframe of lowered death rates, have everyone >40 go back to work. They can go out. If you are >40 and have a pre-existing condition, you work from home until the vaccine is created. It’s your responsibility to stay home and away from people.
Everyone over 40 works from home or keeps their distance....at home until vaccine.
It was mentioned as a “phase one” to the beginning of starting up civilization again. Of course the guideline was 40 and under, but that wouldn’t mean anyone older couldn’t go out.
I wouldn’t be mad at that. I mean getting the economy going again in any way has to happen soon.
And if your area is not affected in a major way (Wyoming) they need to go about this as “business as usual” unless it does start to get really bad. [Reply]