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Nzoner's Game Room>***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***
JakeF 10:28 PM 02-26-2020
A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana:
Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.
Originally Posted by Dartgod:
People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

[Reply]
PAChiefsGuy 12:20 PM 04-03-2020
Map: Watch Coronavirus Cases Spread Across the US

This interactive map shows the spread of the new coronavirus around the United States since March 1, when there were about 100 cases confirmed around the country.


https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/nati...he-us/2358659/
[Reply]
ptlyon 12:22 PM 04-03-2020
Originally Posted by BigRedChief:
Publix around here is only letting customers 65+ and or with disabilities in the stores 7:00-8:00 am on Tuesdays and Wensdays.
Same here with all grocery stores, but every day
[Reply]
DaFace 12:23 PM 04-03-2020
Originally Posted by Donger:
I'm still hopeful that we won't get to that figure.
There are at least some reasons for optimism. Covidly added a chart based on that YouTube video that compares new cases to total cases, and you can definitely see some "flattening" in Italy and Spain, and it's starting in the U.S. as well.



Source:
https://covidly.com/graph?country=Un...0States&state=
(scroll down almost to the bottom of the page)
[Reply]
stumppy 12:23 PM 04-03-2020
Originally Posted by Easy 6:
Those arguments started fast as lightning!
It's a little bit frightning
[Reply]
AustinChief 12:25 PM 04-03-2020
Originally Posted by SupDock:
At this point, I don't know what the fuck you are saying at all.
Clearly.

Here you go...

Originally Posted by AustinChief:
reports are showing fatality rates for people under 50 to be equivalent to a bad flu season,
Originally Posted by TLO:
Is this true?
Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins:
No.
Originally Posted by AustinChief:
Yes it is true and it's already been posted in this thread. .16%

I am not claiming that figure is a final number but that it is being reported as such is 100% true.
(the actual number is <.145%)

Originally Posted by SupDock:
Where are you seeing that that CFR of seasonal influenza is .16%?
Originally Posted by AustinChief:
I specified a bad flu season estimate not what it is averaged over time. There is a huge yearly variance.
That is pretty much the crux of it all.

So, it all boils down to... is .145% (estimate from a report in the Lancet) a reasonable figure for a very bad flu season? I have a feeling you mostly misread what I posted. Hamas on the other hand just likes to be a prick whenever humanly possibly.
[Reply]
SupDock 12:34 PM 04-03-2020
Originally Posted by AustinChief:
Clearly.

Here you go...








(the actual number is <.145%)





That is pretty much the crux of it all.

So, it all boils down to... is .145% (estimate from a report in the Lancet) a reasonable figure for a very bad flu season? I have a feeling you mostly misread what I posted. Hamas on the other hand just likes to be a prick whenever humanly possibly.


For under 40 I would agree with you. You can see the CFR for age 40+ here.

Keeping in mind, young healthy people having a CFR equivalent to the CFR of all ages in a very bad flu season is a little scary as well, but not nearly as scary as the numbers had been. This whole time data had been supportive of the idea that young healthy people do well

The total CFR of all ages was 1.38 percent, compare that to .16 percent for the " bad flu"
[Reply]
burt 12:38 PM 04-03-2020
Originally Posted by stumppy:
What the hell is going on in here?
Everyone has lost their minds in statistic and semantics in the English language. And there appears to be MANY experts...on a football BB.:-)

All these guys know a LOT about Covid19. IF I knew as much about vehicles, I'd be Rick Hendrick!!!

News flash...this is a loosely moderated football BB. We get to be free in our language, we get to say a lot of stuff that would be censored almost any where else. Do NOT take it overly serious. My goodness AC, it's YOUR playground, don't let it get you all festered up.

EVERYONE BREATH....AND CHILL!!!!
[Reply]
Mr_Tomahawk 12:41 PM 04-03-2020
Originally Posted by DaFace:
There are at least some reasons for optimism. Covidly added a chart based on that YouTube video that compares new cases to total cases, and you can definitely see some "flattening" in Italy and Spain, and it's starting in the U.S. as well.



Source:
https://covidly.com/graph?country=Un...0States&state=
(scroll down almost to the bottom of the page)

Good News.

Thank you For Sharing
[Reply]
AustinChief 12:44 PM 04-03-2020
Originally Posted by SupDock:
For under 40 I would agree with you. You can see the CFR for age 40+ here.

Keeping in mind, young healthy people having a CFR equivalent to the CFR of all ages in a very bad flu season is a little scary as well, but not nearly as scary as the numbers had been. This whole time data had been supportive of the idea that young healthy people do well

The total CFR of all ages was 1.38 percent, compare that to .16 percent for the " bad flu"
Again, I am not stating these numbers as FACTS (although I feel they will end up being accurate enough) I stated that it was reported. The report was based on estimates of total infections. I think the chart you posted is based on known or confirmed cases, that is totally different.

Yes you are correct that the comparison is between one demographic for Covid(under 50 or under 60 if you want) and all ages for the flu. BUT the post was in regards to easing restrictions for THAT demo and keeping isolation in place for the older demo and those who are younger and are vulnerable. The context of the post matters quite a bit here.

I'm pretty sure you are attempting to read into my posts things I didn't say or intend. I was pretty specific with my wording to try to avoid that.
[Reply]
Donger 12:45 PM 04-03-2020
Originally Posted by DaFace:
There are at least some reasons for optimism. Covidly added a chart based on that YouTube video that compares new cases to total cases, and you can definitely see some "flattening" in Italy and Spain, and it's starting in the U.S. as well.



Source:
https://covidly.com/graph?country=Un...0States&state=
(scroll down almost to the bottom of the page)
I'm guessing that the data used in that graph is a few days old, unfortunately. I presume that is showing when we saw the growth curve go from concave to convex for a few days.
[Reply]
DaFace 12:50 PM 04-03-2020
Originally Posted by Donger:
I'm guessing that the data used in that graph is a few days old, unfortunately. I presume that is showing when we saw the growth curve go from concave to convex for a few days.
It necessarily uses a week's worth of data (which makes it more stable), but there are other charts with daily data as well, and the slight slowing trend is definitely there. Just scroll through the page I linked.
[Reply]
SupDock 12:54 PM 04-03-2020
Originally Posted by AustinChief:
Again, I am not stating these numbers as FACTS (although I feel they will end up being accurate enough) I stated that it was reported. The report was based on estimates of total infections. I think the chart you posted is based on known or confirmed cases, that is totally different.

Yes you are correct that the comparison is between one demographic for Covid(under 50 or under 60 if you want) and all ages for the flu. BUT the post was in regards to easing restrictions for THAT demo and keeping isolation in place for the older demo and those who are younger and are vulnerable. The context of the post matters quite a bit here.

I'm pretty sure you are attempting to read into my posts things I didn't say or intend. I was pretty specific with my wording to try to avoid that.

https://www.thelancet.com/action/sho...2820%2930243-7

The data and the chart that I posted is from a lancet article estimating case fatality rate. It is the research that prompted the news article that you posted earlier.

I'm still not real clear on what you are saying. If you would be willing to post the original data that prompted your statement of the case fatality rate under age 50, that would be helpful for me.

I was under the assumption that it was the same data that I was referring to.


Full Lancet Article

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...243-7/fulltext
[Reply]
Donger 12:58 PM 04-03-2020
Originally Posted by DaFace:
It necessarily uses a week's worth of data (which makes it more stable), but there are other charts with daily data as well, and the slight slowing trend is definitely there. Just scroll through the page I linked.
You're talking about day over day percentage growth?
[Reply]
DaFace 12:59 PM 04-03-2020
Originally Posted by Donger:
You're talking about day over day percentage growth?
Just in general, the trends are moving closer to flat. Some of that is because they're plotting a lot on a log scale, but part of it is also that growth, while still significant, is slightly less than it has been at least.
[Reply]
Donger 01:01 PM 04-03-2020

Selfless heroism is at the heart of every #FirstResponder. This generosity was on full display at #NYPLowerManhattan, where the brave men & women of @FDNY showed their appreciation for our #NYPHeroes. We salute #NewYorksBravest as they honor our fight against #COVID19. pic.twitter.com/32HCBoOpax

— NewYork-Presbyterian (@nyphospital) April 2, 2020

[Reply]
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