Originally Posted by Bwana:
Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.
Originally Posted by Dartgod:
People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.
We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.
Thanks!
Click here for the original OP:
Spoiler!
Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.
California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.
“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”
The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.
The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”
Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.
The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.
The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.
A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.
Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.
“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”
It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.
“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”
On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.
“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”
According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.
More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.
But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.
“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”
CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.
Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.
“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”
Originally Posted by Mecca:
It's hard to really know, people around me are saying they know people with symptoms yet no one can get tested unless they're dying so they don't count in numbers.
I just don't get it.
Family right up the street from me had someone admitted yesterday morning. Was given some initial screens, a few fast tests for easy answers came back negative, was given a COVID test around 3p yesterday afternoon (dunno how it went; not gonna pry because I'm sure everyone's afraid of wearing a scarlet letter right now).
And he's not on oxygen or anything - just chilling in the isolation ward until results come back.
I still think too many people are showing 'symptoms' and are sure they have the thing when they don't. Again, the positive rates on folks in Boone are damn low (not sure what they are now, but well below 10%). So either these tests suck something awful or a lot of people just haven't had a respiratory disease before and don't realize that they ALL suck.
This one simply appears to suck a fair amount worse.
Go make friends with a pulmonology nurse. Those folks are hard as coffin nails, man. They ALL have stories that will make your skin crawl and have had them for years. [Reply]
(CNN)A prestigious scientific panel told the White House Wednesday night that research shows coronavirus can be spread not just by sneezes or coughs, but also just by talking, or possibly even just breathing.
"While the current [coronavirus] specific research is limited, the results of available studies are consistent with aerosolization of virus from normal breathing," according to the letter, written by Dr. Harvey Fineberg, chairman of a committee with the National Academy of Sciences.
Fineberg told CNN that he will wear start wearing a mask when he goes to the grocery stor [Reply]
Originally Posted by stumppy:
I think the states that refuse to take action should be notified they'll be at the very end of the list of where medical supplies go to.
That is unless they take action now.
Punish the patients and healthcare providers? [Reply]
Originally Posted by Donger:
(CNN)A prestigious scientific panel told the White House Wednesday night that research shows coronavirus can be spread not just by sneezes or coughs, but also just by talking, or possibly even just breathing.
"While the current [coronavirus] specific research is limited, the results of available studies are consistent with aerosolization of virus from normal breathing," according to the letter, written by Dr. Harvey Fineberg, chairman of a committee with the National Academy of Sciences.
Fineberg told CNN that he will wear start wearing a mask when he goes to the grocery stor
This has been fairly well known for a couple weeks.
Again, it comes down to the amount of viral load you take on in one setting vs. the other. It also varies on distance/duration of 'hang'.
And it's why being close to people in indoor spaces with low ventilation where the breath doesn't dissipate well and thus the virus remains in higher concentrations for longer is a really bad idea.
Originally Posted by OnTheWarpath15:
Right now, my body is the Western Front in WWI?
Because I've had the same symptoms for almost two weeks with no change for the better or worse.
Good luck... I'll buy you a beer at Wandering Tortoise one day when we can all congregate in public again.
A coworker had a very similar experience, but 'only' for a little over a week... 102 temp at its worst with fluctuations, no energy, soreness, a cough that lingered after the initial fever dropped. [Reply]
Growth in total confirmed #COVID19 cases as a percent of total population by country: U.S. versus Spain and Italy. (Indexed to days since the first 100 cases were confirmed in each country). U.S. is still early, but on slower relative trajectory when compared to Italy and Spain. pic.twitter.com/KBCxGN2apq
— Scott Gottlieb, MD (@ScottGottliebMD) April 2, 2020
If we don't develop effective therapeutics by summer and have them ready for fall, much of what we're doing now could be lost as #COVID19 comes back again. We must take a new more concerted approach than ever before to industrializing development of a drug https://t.co/fPOuLSUZyi
— Scott Gottlieb, MD (@ScottGottliebMD) April 2, 2020
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut:
If your body has no immune system, yes.
But if your body does, their ability to multiply depends on how many 'living soldiers' they have left, so to speak.
So to put it in military terms, if the virus shows up at the gates with an overwhelming show of force and immediately flattens your front lines, the front lines have done little to slow them, they march through the middle, pick up supplies and strengthen and then beat the holy shit out of your reserve troops before ransacking the city.
If, however, the virus shows up with a much smaller force, your front lines battle it hard. In this scenario they eventually lose and you still have the virus penetrating the front and coming through your middle, but in the process your reserves have rallied, they show up and they squash the remaining troops before they can get to the city.
What your body is able to do EARLY in the infection seems to have a role in how your body handles it. When getting smoked with initial high viral loads, the body is either breaking down completely or trying to spin into overdrive and creating those cyotkine storms that are fucking up peoples lungs. But if you're hit with a relatively small/moderate dose, your body's early response gives it a strong fighting chance. The body doesn't respond with a cytokine storm (I dunno...the equivalent of throwing a tactical nuke in the middle of the field) but rather uses its reserves to put down what's left of the virus.
Clear as mud?
If you can somehow work in an Operation Mincemeat analogy in your analysis at any time in this process (for this, a vaccine, or our response in some way), expect some quality rep from yours truly. [Reply]
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut:
This has been fairly well known for a couple weeks.
Again, it comes down to the amount of viral load you take on in one setting vs. the other. It also varies on distance/duration of 'hang'.
And it's why being close to people in indoor spaces with low ventilation where the breath doesn't dissipate well and thus the virus remains in higher concentrations for longer is a really bad idea.
Originally Posted by Titty Meat:
Didnt DJ argue against states using stay in place yesterday?
I argued that there's little utility in Missouri using it, yes.
Because what else will it accomplish that county-specific orders haven't already done. Local leaders addressed things as needed. I noted in regards to Florida that I don't pay attention to their local leadership and as such don't know if such an order would've been necessary or useful there if done earlier.
I haven't spoken to Mississippi at all because I have no goddamn idea what's happening in Mississippi.
I have, however, cautioned several times against trying to use a single analysis over a myriad of wildly different settings. Guess you must've missed that part. [Reply]
