Originally Posted by Bwana:
Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.
Originally Posted by Dartgod:
People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.
We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.
Thanks!
Click here for the original OP:
Spoiler!
Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.
California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.
“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”
The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.
The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”
Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.
The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.
The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.
A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.
Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.
“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”
It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.
“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”
On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.
“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”
According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.
More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.
But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.
“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”
CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.
Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.
“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut:
Recoveries is the the 2nd MOST meaningful number.
Deaths it the most critical, but recoveries is the only thing that suggests any sort of legitimate march forward.
Any legitimate plan forward, any real consideration of 'flattening the curve' - should be focused on surges in recovery rates while trying to keep deaths as small as possible. If any of these therapeutic treatments prove viable, it will be reflected in a shortened lag time on recovery rates and significantly increased numbers in them.
The idea that recovery figures are meaningless is absurd. That's the one metric that can provide signs of progress.
If it was good data, I would agree. It's not anything close to good data. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Discuss Thrower:
You should leave economic discussions to the experts, FYI.
I'm not speaking about economic impacts at all, rather, your misery fetish that is plainly obvious to anyone that has read more than two of your posts on any subject. [Reply]
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut:
Recoveries is the the 2nd MOST meaningful number.
Deaths it the most critical, but recoveries is the only thing that suggests any sort of legitimate march forward.
Any legitimate plan forward, any real consideration of 'flattening the curve' - should be focused on surges in recovery rates while trying to keep deaths as small as possible. If any of these therapeutic treatments prove viable, it will be reflected in a shortened lag time on recovery rates and significantly increased numbers in them.
The idea that recovery figures are meaningless is absurd. That's the one metric that can provide signs of progress.
Originally Posted by DaFace:
If it was good data, I would agree. It's not anything close to good data.
None of it is.
If you're gonna say "I don't care about recoveries because I don't trust the data" then I hope you've never once bothered to look into the number of confirmed cases either. Because that's working from an even shakier data set.
Originally Posted by petegz28:
So now they are saying masks only prevent you from spreading it not necessarily getting it.
It has been a know fact for a while , unless you are wearing a fitted n95 with eye protection, masks are better to avoid infected people from spreading it. [Reply]
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut:
None of it is.
If you're gonna say "I don't care about recoveries because I don't trust the data" then I hope you've never once bothered to look into the number of confirmed cases either. Because that's working from an even shakier data set.
Its a completely inconsistent viewpoint.
Nope. I pretty much care about hospitalizations and deaths. All the rest is noise. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Monticore:
It has been a know fact for a while , unless you are wearing a fitted n95 with eye protection, masks are better to avoid infected people from spreading it.
This is not entirely accurate. There are numerous studies that demonstrate plain medical masks afford significant protection to the user. While N-95 masks are superior, medical masks are themselves also protective. [Reply]
Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins:
This is not entirely accurate. There are numerous studies that demonstrate plain medical masks afford significant protection to the user. While N-95 masks are superior, medical masks are themselves also protective.
Used correctly , but the average user isn’t going to change often enough , or not touch it or move it , taking it off the Back on , letting get moist or soiled , gives people false sense of security and they don’t wash there hands as often. Is it better than nothing yes it can be. Would also need eye protection as well. [Reply]
Originally Posted by petegz28:
Because people like to hear good news too???? If they are so meaningless then why do we care about how many people have died?
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut:
Recoveries is the the 2nd MOST meaningful number.
Deaths it the most critical, but recoveries is the only thing that suggests any sort of legitimate march forward.
Any legitimate plan forward, any real consideration of 'flattening the curve' - should be focused on surges in recovery rates while trying to keep deaths as small as possible. If any of these therapeutic treatments prove viable, it will be reflected in a shortened lag time on recovery rates and significantly increased numbers in them.
The idea that recovery figures are meaningless is absurd. That's the one metric that can provide signs of progress.
I can see the value in 'treated' patients versus 'recovered' and whether you're able to treat them and get them out the door faster than they're coming in... versus the sheer number of people who have come down with it and recovered.
AFAIK though, it's still just "you probably have it, stay home"... or if you test positive it's "you have it and need to quarantine", and I don't see much use in those stats. [Reply]
What the hell did you think was going to happen? When you tell a country of 350 million people to simply stay home, you really think you can avoid 100+ million of them losing their jobs? We're a service economy and when you combine the collapse of service industry jobs w/ the shuttering of significant industrial components of our economy, how the hell did you not expect at least 20% unemployment over any sort of timeline?
There is NO clean path through this. It doesn't exist. Anyone that is still sitting around acting like "JUST STAY HOME!" is some simple, clean, effective long-term plan to getting through this is simply lying to themselves and they have been from the very beginning.
It isn't about valuing money over lives. It isn't about 'not taking this seriously'. It's about having a clear-eyed view of this thing. The 'peak' in April is almost certainly temporary. It'll peak....briefly. Then just like the Spanish flu before it, there will be a secondary wave of infections that will be as bad or worse and it will take aim at a population you've already crippled.
Because nobody is keeping their eyes on an end game or even attempting to formulate one. They are just waiting for a cavalry to show up that almost certainly isn't coming.
Stfu... I'm just saying that is a large number not saying I didn't expect it.
Mr 'Lets not practice social distancing because the economy is more important!' You ain't saying that shit now are you? Acting like you are perfect with your predictions. [Reply]
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut:
Recoveries is the the 2nd MOST meaningful number.
Deaths it the most critical, but recoveries is the only thing that suggests any sort of legitimate march forward.
Any legitimate plan forward, any real consideration of 'flattening the curve' - should be focused on surges in recovery rates while trying to keep deaths as small as possible. If any of these therapeutic treatments prove viable, it will be reflected in a shortened lag time on recovery rates and significantly increased numbers in them.
The idea that recovery figures are meaningless is absurd. That's the one metric that can provide signs of progress.
no 1 :most of the cases havent even had time to recover.
no.2: we always knew that the recovery numbers would far outpace the deaths, so there's no reason to make such a big deal about them. those people still get to live their life. [Reply]
Why anyone still thinks that merely locking everything down for a month or two months or even three months is going to stop this thing is just completely beyond me.
