Royals *** Official 2018 Royals Offseason Repository *** - Page 101

Originally Posted by BWillie:
Hahaha what a bunch of idiots. Wow we dodged a bullet on that one. What do the Padres pay Hosmer if the team opts out after 5 (which I imagine they surely will want yo do)

According to the posts above it is HOSMER'S option, not the teams. If this is true this is an abysmal deal.
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Originally Posted by Buehler445:
According to the posts above it is HOSMER'S option, not the teams. If this is true this is an abysmal deal.

Meh.

$20 million a year for ages 28,29,30,31,32 isn't bad at all.

$13 million a year for 33,34,35 isn't awful either.
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Originally Posted by duncan_idaho:
His WAR totals are driven significantly down by obviously ****ed 1B defense metrics, which have consistently rated him a worse defender than notable turd defenders such as Jose Abreu and Ryan Howard.

Likely has back-to-back 30-HR seasons if he played in a more neutral hitters park. It's not a standard, though. I think most are surprised at the length - really creative offer from the Padres, though.

I think you're wrong.

The Giants have a few years left in the current window but are a very old team with very, very little coming from their minor league system. Their top prospect is Helio Ramos, who they drafted last year, and the rest of their system is basically empty.

The Diamondbacks' window is in danger of closing; also not a good farm system, and Goldschmidt and Pollock and Corbin don't have much control left.

The Dodgers are there to stay, but the Padres have a great farm system, stocked with pitching prospects (three of them premium guys with true ToR ability). In addition to Hosmer, they have another good young power hitter in Wil Myers, who now will play LF. They have a really good young CF in Manny Margot, who can impact the game with his defense, his legs, or his bat. They have a good young C in Austin Hedges, who is a plus defender. They have a couple of premium prospects up the middle, one of them a switch-hitting shortstop with speed and power (Fernando Tatis, JR).

I see a team that will be a contender in the 2020-2021 window. Maybe even as soon as next season.

The Padres will have losing seasons for the next 5 years in a row and Hosmer will get sick of being pounded by the Dodgers, Dbacks, Rockies and Giants every year.
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BTW, I fully expect Hosmer to rape the next two years. Probably having a career year one of those years, but then falling drastically back to earth becoming a avg or below avg 1st baseman again who cant play any other position. But that means you are still essentially paying 144M for a few years of above avg production.
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Originally Posted by mcaj22:
The Padres will have losing seasons for the next 5 years in a row and Hosmer will get sick of being pounded by the Dodgers, Dbacks, Rockies and Giants every year.

We already had this conversation. You made that statement. I refuted it.

The Dodgers are the only team in that group set up for long-term success.
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Originally Posted by duncan_idaho:
Meh.

$20 million a year for ages 28,29,30,31,32 isn't bad at all.

$13 million a year for 33,34,35 isn't awful either.

So hes at 9.4 WAR for his last 4 years. You want to pay 80M for 9.4 WAR? That is also not even assuming his likely massive decline for the last 4 yearsof the contract. You are likely paying 50% more than that per WAR over the life of the contract.

Thats lighting money on fire. 8.6M surely is not the going rate per WAR. That would be like giving Josh Donaldson a 1 year 80M deal.
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Originally Posted by Sure-Oz:
Now the Royals gotta sign Morrison

LoMo & Bubba in the lineup. 2 KC kids playing for their hometown team.
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Originally Posted by KChiefs1:
LoMo & Bubba in the lineup. 2 KC kids playing for their hometown team.

let's do this!!
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Originally Posted by Sure-Oz:
Now the Royals gotta sign Morrison

God I hope not. Save that money until we are ready to compete again. Circa 2025, hopefully.
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I think this team can win now we need to sign hosmer replacement or put whit there and have mondi at 2nd.
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So we get what like 30th pick in the draft for this?
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Sign Morrison and Moose and our roster gets better than had we just signed Hosmer.

Get this done.
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Originally Posted by BWillie:
So hes at 9.4 WAR for his last 4 years. You want to pay 80M for 9.4 WAR? That is also not even assuming his likely massive decline for the last 4 yearsof the contract. You are likely paying 50% more than that per WAR over the life of the contract.

Thats lighting money on fire. 8.6M surely is not the going rate per WAR. That would be like giving Josh Donaldson a 1 year 80M deal.

$9 million/WAR is about the going rate for WAR on the market, or at least it has been. True superstar performers like Trout can't get that, but for guys in the 1-2 WAR range, that's been the rate.

At 9/WAR, Hosmer would need to provide 16 wins over he course of the deal, or an average of 2/year, to be neutral value on this deal.

I don't believe many teams calculate defensive value for 1B the way Fangraphs especially or even bref does, because otherwise they'd believe stone-handed butchers like Ryan Howard, Chris Carter, Jose Antrim, etc. are better defenders at 1B than Hosmer, and that makes zero sense. That's a significant die driver in Hosmer's defensive value and overall value.

It's a deal with some real risk for the Padres, but they structured it smartly, and his opt-out IS potentially exercisable.
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with hosmer signing do we assume that the market has now been set and the other pieces will start to fall?
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That deal is creative in regards to Boras. If Hos plays to his contract he will opt out and sign for more somewhere else. If he doesn’t the Padres are stuck with him, its just like the Kennedy deal.
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